Abiy Ahmed’s Manufactured “Existential” Crisis Over Ethiopia’s Sea Access
By: Horn Perspective
The core message of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister in his address to Parliament was clear: access to the sea is “existential threat.” He warned that if the issue isn’t resolved through dialogue “now,” desperation among Ethiopians could lead to dire consequences.
This framing is not just misleading—it is rooted in paranoia. No country in the Horn of Africa is conspiring to starve Ethiopia. These nations share more than geography; they share blood, culture, and history. Eritrea, for instance, has never weaponized its ports against Ethiopia. Even during tense relations in 2002, Eritrea offered its ports to facilitate aid for over 14 million Ethiopians facing drought. It was the TPLF-led Ethiopian government that rejected this offer, driven by its own twisted logic: “Ethiopian people can starve, so that Eritrea must not benefit.” The same happened in 2016 when UN proposals to use Eritrean ports for aid were once again refused.
Ethiopia’s True Crisis: Economic Mismanagement, Not Landlocked Borders
Ethiopia’s core problem is not its lack of direct sea access. It is the chronic mismanagement of its economy and its deeply flawed approach to national unity. These internal failures are fueling conflict, pushing millions into poverty, and marginalizing the majority while enriching a parasitic elite that merely shifts faces with each new regime.
A striking example: over 60% of Ethiopia’s total currency circulation is concentrated in Addis Ababa, a city of just 5 million people, while the rest of the nation is left with minimal financial access. The problem is not geography—it is systemic economic failure.
Moreover, Ethiopia is far better positioned than most landlocked nations. It borders five countries, each with access to the sea. The notion that Ethiopia could be completely “cut off” assumes that all five neighbors would simultaneously impose a blockade—an absurd and unfounded fear.
Abiy’s Contradictions: Desperation or Deliberate Provocation?
Abiy’s narrative of “existential threat” collapses under scrutiny. Just last year, Djibouti offered Ethiopia full management of a port in Tadjoura. Eight months later, the Ethiopian government has yet to respond. How can Ethiopia claim desperation or existential-threat while ignoring practical solutions?
Furthermore, the Prime Minister’s claim that he only seeks “dialogue” is disingenuous. He has raised this issue with every regional leader multiple times, and their responses have been clear and consistent:
- Ethiopia is welcome to use neighboring ports under commercial agreements, reflecting fraternal ties and shared prosperity.
- No country will cede its sovereign territory to Ethiopia.
- No nation will support any reckless attempt to redraw the map of the Horn.
Yet, Abiy persists in repeating the same demand, despite receiving firm and unequivocal answers. At this point, his insistence resembles deliberate provocation rather than genuine diplomacy.
The reality is clear: Ethiopia’s problem is not the sea. It is a failing economy, internal instability, and leadership that thrives on manufactured crises rather than real solutions.
